Risk Analysis

Pine Lake HomeSites

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Risk Analysis allows you to combine variations in many assumptions. Here we vary both the Sales and Costs Multipliers at the same time in the same ranges as in Sensitivity Analysis, and show the resulting Probability Distribution of the NPV of the project (at 10% After Tax). Very reassuringly, given these ranges, there is no measurable probability of losing money on the project.


Risk Analysis Assumption Lowest Likely Highest
  Unit Sales Price Multiplier 90% 100% 110%
  Unit Sales Cost Multiplier 90% 100% 110%


Average NPV 308,202   Lowest NPV 97,296
Standard Deviation 80,245   Highest NPV 517,968

The data and calculations presented herein, while not guaranteed,
have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.
Produced by planEASe from Analytic Associates (800) 959-3273

     



Risk Analysis

Pine Lake HomeSites


Risk Analysis results may also be presented as a Cumulative Probability Distribution, which may allow easier interpretation of the results in some cases.


Risk Analysis Assumption Lowest Likely Highest
  Unit Sales Price Multiplier 90% 100% 110%
  Unit Sales Cost Multiplier 90% 100% 110%


Average NPV 308,202   Lowest NPV 97,296
Standard Deviation 80,245   Highest NPV 517,968

The data and calculations presented herein, while not guaranteed,
have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.
Produced by planEASe from Analytic Associates (800) 959-3273

     

Back to Unit Sales Index - planEASe Home Page